Should the Lib Dems Enter a Tory Coalition?

As we wait to see if agreement can be reached between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat negotiating teams this morning, it seemed a good time to put down some thoughts on the Lib Dems’ position.

In my view anything barring a name-only coalition, where the Lib Dems would be required to rubber-stamp anything put forward by the Tories, would be good for them in the long term.

The biggest win for the Libs will be the gaining of experience in the eyes of the electorate. One of the biggest question marks for many floating voters I talked to, when considering the LDs, was their lack of experience in actually governing the country. Having a term as the junior partner in a coalition would put them in a much stronger position for the next election, whenever that might be.

In terms of political strategy, the Lib Dems have a huge opportunity to have a guiding hand in the key economic decisions that face the next government. They also have the opportunity to ameliorate Tory policy on controversial subjects like immigration.

As junior partner they would escape the worst of the tarring over swingeing public spending cuts which would, again, put them in a better position for the next election.

Whether electoral reform should be a deal-breaker is perhaps the trickiest question. Many grass-roots LD supports feel that it should be a fundamental part of any coalition, but in putting their foot down they could miss out on the benefits of power-sharing. Electoral reform could wait for a term, economic stability can’t.

A coalition with Labour is unlikely to be successful, the fact that additional party support would be required in order to gain a majority will make the ability to get potentially difficult legislation through and will likely be a political disaster for the two biggest parties.

It has to be born in mind that there are major divisions in policy between Labour and Lib Dems as there are between the Libs and Labour. The key overlaps that I see are these:

• Big Government – Lib Dems and Tories agree on reducing government, scrapping ID cards and ContactPoint databases, reforming parliament. Tories may support Lib Dems Freedom Bill
• PR – Lib Dems and Labour agree on Proportional Representation, if not on the method.

Any agreement between the parties’ leaderships will have to be approved by at least 75% of Lib Dem MPs and their Federal Executive before a coalition can formally proceed.

Whatever happens today, I don’t envy Nick Clegg the decisions that he will have to make over the next 24 hours.

Clegg is due to meet his MPs at 13:00 this afternoon, it is hoped that he will be in a position to put a deal to them at that stage. David Cameron will meet his MPs at 18:00 and I would expect that there will be some sort of statement, if only a progress report in time for the late evening news.

The leaders will be looking to get a decision made as soon as possible in order to ensure that the City doesn’t get too twitchy.